The Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) has announced that the likelihood of El Nino reaching the 'very strong' or 'Super El Nino' category between October and December has risen to more than 90 per cent. 8 degrees Celsius above the climatological average. Dr Mohd Hisham stated that the current global climate patterns indicate that the 2026–2027 El Nino could rank among the most extreme events ever recorded, with its impact potentially exceeding or at least matching that of the very strong El Nino episodes in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
During these episodes, Malaysia experienced hotter and drier conditions than usual, accompanied by a significant reduction in rainfall in some areas towards the end of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM) and during the inter-monsoon period between February and May. The strong El Nino is also expected to occur alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), potentially intensifying the reduction in rainfall across the region. Dr Mohd Hisham explained that El Nino reduces the supply of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, while a positive IOD reduces the supply of moisture from the Indian Ocean, increasing the likelihood of hotter and drier conditions, as well as longer spells without rain, across the southern ASEAN region, including Malaysia.
3 degrees Celsius recorded at the Batu Embun Meteorological Station in Jerantut, Pahang, on April 10, 2016. Based on the patterns of previous episodes and the effects of global warming in recent years, the increase in temperatures this time is expected to be more pronounced from February to May next year. MetMalaysia will continue to closely monitor developments involving both phenomena, as well as weather conditions and the regional risk of forest fires.
The department assures that it will provide updates and warnings to the public as necessary. In terms of key numbers, the likelihood of El Nino reaching the very strong category between October and December 2026 is high, at more than 90 per cent, based on the latest forecasts issued by international climate models. 8 degrees Celsius above the climatological average, indicating a significant upward trend in the RONI since the middle of the year.
The context of this warning is crucial, as Malaysia has experienced severe droughts and heatwaves in the past due to El Nino events. The country's agricultural sector, water supply, and ecosystem are likely to be affected by the predicted hotter and drier conditions. As the situation develops, MetMalaysia will provide further updates and guidance to the public.
It is essential for Malaysians to stay informed and take necessary precautions to mitigate the impacts of the predicted El Nino event.
